asdwq3
0xe15413c6663a10f580b588169e75c7f138dfada8
- Realised P&L
- $-949.84
- Volume
- $132.8k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $182.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.048 | $182.35 | −$67.18 |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on January 23? · Down | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 21? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$169.43 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Pelicans vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.540Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12?
- +$216.64at 0.500Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$98.47at 0.300Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$50.65at 0.105Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
- +$19.52at 0.382Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 03:19 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $562.72 |
| 07-02 02:03 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $563.89 |
| 06-15 01:51 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $486.77 |
| 06-06 07:29 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | SELL | 0.82 | $453.46 |
| 05-30 06:27 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $442.40 |
| 05-14 01:47 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.782 | $430.10 |
| 05-11 02:37 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.755 | $415.25 |
| 05-04 01:12 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.124 | $28.89 |
| 05-04 01:10 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.124 | $43.65 |
| 04-13 01:38 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999813 | $6.76 |
| 04-13 01:38 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999863 | $9.22 |
| 04-13 01:38 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6149999879 | $10.45 |
| 04-12 01:52 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 03-21 07:05 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.74 | $24.42 |
| 03-21 07:00 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.74 | $387.02 |