tolicien
0xe1446165e273806bac19be501862dbd8ef2efa7c
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $34.1k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.265 | $2.0k | +$1.0k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.190 | $308.15 | +$108.15 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.095 | $245.24 | +$45.24 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $182.28 | −$17.72 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.029 | $90.44 | −$9.56 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.028 | $9.48 | −$20.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$695.23at 0.655Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$183.76at 0.357Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$177.00at 0.612Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$161.12at 0.447Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
- +$136.30at 0.527Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 21:29 | Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi | BUY | 0.5387755995 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 22:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1316807574 | $1.0k |
| 07-21 22:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0774762499 | $200.00 |
| 07-21 21:59 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0326194949 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 21:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1172850839 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 21:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0603480008 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 21:33 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.64 | $300.00 |
| 07-19 21:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.7099999997 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 17:52 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999997 | $496.58 |
| 07-19 17:52 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4274999999 | $600.00 |
| 07-14 18:55 | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 18:54 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.3649999987 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 09:42 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5974999997 | $700.00 |
| 07-12 03:15 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2974999929 | $20.00 |
| 07-12 03:14 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.4899999966 | $50.00 |