tolicien
0xe1446165e273806bac19be501862dbd8ef2efa7c
- Realised P&L
- $-186.07
- Volume
- $34.3k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.155 | $1.2k | +$177.09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.105 | $170.29 | −$29.70 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.055 | $141.98 | −$58.02 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.040 | $130.91 | −$69.09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.015 | $47.52 | −$52.48 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.021 | $7.07 | −$22.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$695.23at 0.655Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$183.76at 0.357Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$177.00at 0.612Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$161.12at 0.447Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
- +$136.30at 0.527Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 21:29 | Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi | BUY | 0.5387755995 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 22:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1316807574 | $1.0k |
| 07-21 22:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0774762499 | $200.00 |
| 07-21 21:59 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0326194949 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 21:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1172850839 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 21:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0603480008 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 21:33 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.64 | $300.00 |
| 07-19 21:28 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.7099999997 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 17:52 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999997 | $496.58 |
| 07-19 17:52 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4274999999 | $600.00 |
| 07-14 18:55 | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 18:54 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.3649999987 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 09:42 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5974999997 | $700.00 |
| 07-12 03:15 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2974999929 | $20.00 |
| 07-12 03:14 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.4899999966 | $50.00 |