0xe1323E5b1fa09c4e64815411Ec141bC9306A532c-1783187905762
0xe1323e5b1fa09c4e64815411ec141bc9306a532c
- Realised P&L
- $-4.16
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $76.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.210 | $73.49 | −$46.51 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.021 | $2.33 | −$14.67 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.021 | $0.23 | −$0.77 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? · No | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.89at 0.894Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?
- +$6.00at 0.830Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$0.83at 0.480Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$-1.45at 0.267Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
- +$-5.10at 0.150Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 17:27 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 17:25 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3429270511 | $120.00 |
| 08-01 17:24 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 17:24 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0493890574 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 17:21 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3281410564 | $150.47 |
| 07-29 12:22 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999856 | $7.00 |
| 07-29 11:58 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.75 |
| 07-29 11:58 | Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.55 |
| 07-28 07:00 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.00 |
| 07-28 04:29 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $4.63 |
| 07-27 08:35 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 07-27 07:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.83 |
| 07-24 22:00 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999944 | $25.00 |
| 07-24 21:58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1245 | $24.90 |
| 07-23 09:47 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1341157634 | $35.00 |