newyear03
0xe0e3d5baf9a843e05a7878fc8363849494c4e146
- Realised P&L
- $-53.83
- Volume
- $91.8k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $207.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.555 | $84.57 | −$16.00 |
| Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.415 | $53.53 | +$5.81 |
| Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.620 | $46.50 | +$0.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.645 | $14.74 | −$0.11 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.962 | 0.982 | $7.62 | +$0.16 |
| Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.63 | −$3.17 |
| Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.33at 0.870Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
- +$6.37at 0.004Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$3.68at 0.770Bitcoin all time high by June 30?
- +$2.31at 0.790Cowboys vs. Eagles
- +$1.92at 0.959Will no CEO be announced in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 14:06 | Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.37 | $47.73 |
| 09-09 10:23 | Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.62 | $46.50 |
| 09-09 10:22 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.962 | $7.47 |
| 09-09 10:21 | Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.18 |
| 06-13 09:15 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.66 | $100.57 |
| 06-13 09:14 | Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.002 | $16.22 |
| 04-17 10:13 | Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.005 | $40.55 |
| 04-17 10:11 | Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.995 | $124.38 |
| 04-10 13:54 | Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.998 | $124.75 |
| 04-10 13:53 | Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.58 |
| 04-10 13:52 | Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.984 | $131.98 |
| 04-10 13:51 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $15.54 |
| 03-31 13:10 | Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9822823915 | $131.76 |
| 03-31 13:10 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $23.31 |
| 01-28 14:54 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million? | BUY | 0.9682 | $48.41 |