unsecured7308
0xe0d9407f4beec6a1c2dfa36f02f327303ebf8483
- Realised P&L
- $4.4k
- Volume
- $263.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,219
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,219
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.353Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
- +$931.35at 0.694Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$621.88at 0.517Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
- +$553.93at 0.419Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
- +$534.92at 0.286Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 12:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $38.55 |
| 09-15 12:35 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9249849371 | $225.00 |
| 09-15 12:35 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.4349852416 | $224.00 |
| 09-15 12:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.4149950343 | $199.00 |
| 09-14 10:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5525409469 | $185.21 |
| 09-14 09:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.989 | $871.75 |
| 09-14 09:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6813103934 | $499.99 |
| 09-11 09:16 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.8248078337 | $59.46 |
| 09-10 09:25 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on September 10? | BUY | 0.5899999995 | $294.25 |
| 09-10 08:45 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on September 10? | BUY | 0.92 | $55.00 |
| 09-10 07:05 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.8242290198 | $120.00 |
| 09-03 06:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | BUY | 0.7399999941 | $25.00 |
| 08-28 07:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $500.65 |
| 08-22 16:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.7199999998 | $850.04 |
| 08-22 14:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |