PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

alivedeer

0xe0c5e955572d182dd38cf3eddb9700c099b9913c

Realised P&L
$-1.9k
Volume
$864.8k
Markets traded
295
Open portfolio
$7.05

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded295
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration94.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0760.047$7.05$4.39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00$13.33
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00$1.40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$141.03
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00$263.44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? · No0.0040.000$0.00$119.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$29.97
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$29.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No0.0010.000$0.00$130.00
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$34.66
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 10? · Yes0.4500.000$0.00$3.40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes0.2440.000$0.00$48.80
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$21.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yes0.1370.000$0.00$95.56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$0.09

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-25 10:18Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?SELL0.2$6.00
05-25 10:18Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?SELL0.6$5.99
05-25 10:18US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?SELL0.12$1.20
05-25 10:18Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.12$0.93
05-25 10:17Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?SELL0.2243971074$185.56
05-10 12:34Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.17$1.32
05-10 12:33US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?BUY0.45$4.50
05-10 12:29US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY0.04$1.04
05-10 12:29US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY0.039$1.95
05-10 12:27US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?BUY0.036$15.46
05-10 12:24Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?BUY0.21$173.66
05-10 12:10Epstein suicide note released by May 8?SELL0.0112401216$36.98
05-10 12:08Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?SELL0.021$14.70
05-10 12:06Epstein suicide note released by May 8?SELL0.012$6.16
05-10 11:56Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?SELL0.0268251165$13.00