MacroStratFirm
0xe090aba178f85de742aabce81da68903e906727f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $40.6k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $847.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz · Novak Djokovic | 0.630 | 0.645 | $296.37 | +$6.89 |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli · Flavio Cobolli | 0.650 | 0.635 | $282.62 | −$6.68 |
| Raiders vs. Patriots · Patriots | 0.630 | 0.625 | $207.67 | −$1.66 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.724 | 0.737 | $36.85 | +$0.65 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.825 | $24.26 | −$0.15 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.96 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.748 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$237.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$143.48at 0.619Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$143.10at 0.613Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$91.54at 0.634Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
- +$87.25at 0.633Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- +$59.99at 0.805Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 21:35 | Raiders vs. Patriots | BUY | 0.63 | $209.33 |
| 10-08 17:50 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli | BUY | 0.65 | $289.30 |
| 10-08 16:19 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz | BUY | 0.63 | $289.48 |
| 10-08 04:12 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $228.06 |
| 10-08 01:46 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.154 | $85.49 |
| 10-07 04:15 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.896502924 | $7.67 |
| 10-06 16:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $275.31 |
| 10-06 09:22 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | SELL | 0.9514518038 | $421.18 |
| 10-06 03:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $322.50 |
| 10-06 03:02 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $33.28 |
| 10-06 02:56 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.94 |
| 10-05 11:17 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.9 | $8.56 |
| 10-04 11:55 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $342.97 |
| 10-01 22:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $385.16 |
| 10-01 01:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.3809275771 | $302.91 |