0xe07eaf1a12eb786be50f4db580dd74400ccbdd48
0xe07eaf1a12eb786be50f4db580dd74400ccbdd48
- Realised P&L
- $5.62
- Volume
- $305.76
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $4.67
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.365 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.765 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.635 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.305 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 in September? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.455 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.009 | $0.08 | −$1.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.33at 0.280Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$3.80at 0.350SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$3.32at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 03:33 | Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:28 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:50 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 09:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 01:21 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 16:04 | Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 08:04 | Will Trump say "Economy" or "Economic" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 12:04 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 12:04 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 04:02 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 23? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 08:02 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $112.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 19:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 01:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 16:57 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 08:39 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |