0xE05a1866D86eEFFb2a1F2D1cea666e82c663A7EB-1773229221660
0xe05a1866d86eeffb2a1f2d1cea666e82c663a7eb
- Realised P&L
- $107.66
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $7.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.002 | $7.84 | −$92.16 |
| Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.71at 0.095Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$68.87at 0.597Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$35.11at 0.798Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$1.52at 0.681Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
- +$-5.91at 0.247Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 18:37 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0191367306 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 18:35 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5849999984 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 18:25 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | SELL | 0.1499406332 | $9.09 |
| 07-02 18:25 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $21.74 |
| 06-12 07:24 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.2790137309 | $146.71 |
| 05-03 06:46 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0950884169 | $50.00 |
| 03-27 09:03 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2473614776 | $15.00 |
| 03-17 14:34 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.7699999962 | $39.00 |
| 03-16 22:34 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6806445309 | $20.00 |
| 03-16 22:32 | Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | BUY | 0.021 | $5.00 |
| 03-16 22:32 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 03-16 22:30 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.0257812311 | $15.00 |
| 03-16 22:18 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $100.00 |
| 03-16 22:13 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $86.36 |
| 03-16 19:58 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.0489498463 | $30.00 |