testik2
0xe018ac1e9914f9061e9b4969a09b17984e44a22d
- Realised P&L
- $5.6k
- Volume
- $858.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,264
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,264
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.773 | 0.969 | $658.93 | +$133.09 |
| Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.281 | 0.940 | $225.60 | +$158.06 |
| Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.576 | 0.998 | $184.58 | +$78.04 |
| Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch? · No | 0.760 | 0.855 | $52.16 | +$5.79 |
| Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.365 | $22.27 | +$10.68 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.030 | $20.74 | −$26.20 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.583 | 0.060 | $14.40 | −$125.41 |
| Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.037 | $6.95 | −$0.28 |
| Yo FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.054 | $0.38 | −$0.64 |
| Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.021 | $0.21 | −$0.99 |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.065 | $0.10 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.959US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.283Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 12?
- +$658.24at 0.531Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$617.16at 0.689Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12?
- +$545.40at 0.604Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.6228010585 | $12.46 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.6209999963 | $39.75 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.6219999814 | $9.96 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.622 | $49.76 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.624 | $62.40 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.624 | $62.40 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.623 | $49.84 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.624 | $62.40 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.623 | $49.84 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.622 | $49.76 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.624 | $62.40 |
| 06-26 16:34 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 26? | BUY | 0.622003198 | $62.40 |
| 06-26 16:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.53 | $5.83 |
| 06-26 16:28 | Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.65 | $18.20 |
| 06-26 16:21 | Ethereum above 1,580 on June 26, 1PM ET? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.68 |