PolyBot

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Traders

JoshuaSmith3917

0xdfec8d02da40c9414765b308d8f2c434e56f09a7

Realised P&L
$1.3k
Volume
$222.2k
Markets traded
363
Open portfolio
$328.97

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded363
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · Yes0.6900.340$85.00$87.50
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · Yes0.8200.455$83.63$67.25
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary? · No0.7701.000$80.00+$18.40
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.4600.465$40.92+$0.44
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · No0.9581.000$31.98+$1.33
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No0.8300.983$2.95+$0.46
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3700.130$2.60$4.80
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.2020.017$0.86$9.65
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes0.2400.002$0.45$71.55
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? · No0.4900.435$0.43$0.06
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.2400.093$0.09$0.15
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0430.053$0.05+$0.01
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? · Yes0.0140.000$0.00$1.11
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? · Yes0.0380.000$0.00$0.04
Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes0.0420.000$0.00$0.04

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-21 04:06Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?SELL0.81$113.40
02-09 01:37Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.19$62.70
02-08 18:58Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.914$32.90
02-08 18:57Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.914$38.39
02-08 16:22Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?SELL0.74$111.74
02-08 16:20Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?SELL0.74$176.86
02-08 16:18Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?SELL0.74$243.46
01-11 15:53Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?SELL0.54$21.06
01-11 13:58Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?SELL0.7$154.00
01-11 13:57Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?SELL0.7$177.10
01-11 11:15Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?SELL0.74$44.40
01-11 08:30Will the US strike Iran next?BUY0.79$242.53
01-11 08:26Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?BUY0.74$44.40
01-11 08:18Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?BUY0.72$343.44
01-11 07:31Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?SELL0.67$505.18