JoshuaSmith3917
0xdfec8d02da40c9414765b308d8f2c434e56f09a7
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $222.2k
- Markets traded
- 363
- Open portfolio
- $328.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded363
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$410.99at 0.270Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$162.23at 0.700Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
- +$160.38at 0.360Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
- +$115.85at 0.510Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$109.80at 0.640Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 04:06 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $113.40 |
| 02-09 01:37 | Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $62.70 |
| 02-08 18:58 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.914 | $32.90 |
| 02-08 18:57 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.914 | $38.39 |
| 02-08 16:22 | Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.74 | $111.74 |
| 02-08 16:20 | Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.74 | $176.86 |
| 02-08 16:18 | Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.74 | $243.46 |
| 01-11 15:53 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? | SELL | 0.54 | $21.06 |
| 01-11 13:58 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.7 | $154.00 |
| 01-11 13:57 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | SELL | 0.7 | $177.10 |
| 01-11 11:15 | Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $44.40 |
| 01-11 08:30 | Will the US strike Iran next? | BUY | 0.79 | $242.53 |
| 01-11 08:26 | Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $44.40 |
| 01-11 08:18 | Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes? | BUY | 0.72 | $343.44 |
| 01-11 07:31 | Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $505.18 |