you249307
0xdfe0d1c124a370a1576739335bb4ecf2dac3222f
- Realised P&L
- $-620.51
- Volume
- $92.8k
- Markets traded
- 323
- Open portfolio
- $28.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded323
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.866 | 0.960 | $28.79 | +$2.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$369.63at 0.037Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?
- +$8.75at 0.981Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29?
- +$7.50at 0.984Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30?
- +$6.00at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 19?
- +$5.59at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 07:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.866 | $8.66 |
| 10-01 07:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.8655 | $17.31 |
| 09-30 08:09 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $61.75 |
| 09-26 08:33 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 09-19 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 07:29 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.84 |
| 09-15 07:16 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.28 |
| 09-15 07:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.9895926265 | $194.34 |
| 09-15 07:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.86 | $7.71 |
| 09-12 03:53 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 12? | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 09-10 08:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-10 08:09 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $68.56 |
| 09-08 09:04 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 8? | BUY | 0.99 | $272.28 |
| 09-05 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-05 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |