Laurelfvgb
0xdfdb48de26fce73d463b48b911f46498d99a2a56
- Realised P&L
- $-12.20
- Volume
- $14.5k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $17.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Patriots (-5.5) · Steelers | 0.520 | 0.515 | $17.00 | −$0.17 |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.60 |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? · Yes | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.45 |
| Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.14 |
| Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.44 |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) · Milwaukee Brewers | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$321.97at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$303.81at 0.500Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$283.71at 0.500Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$145.91at 0.500Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?
- +$140.01at 0.500Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:41 | Spread: Patriots (-5.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $17.16 |
| 09-07 06:38 | Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6 | $13.44 |
| 08-14 09:33 | UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.45 | $13.05 |
| 08-06 08:08 | UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas (Featherweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.59 | $30.68 |
| 07-16 03:28 | Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 07-10 06:22 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6475 | $14.24 |
| 06-16 08:38 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | BUY | 0.4 | $10.40 |
| 05-23 09:41 | Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? | BUY | 0.44 | $16.14 |
| 05-07 08:44 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.60 |
| 05-07 08:42 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? | BUY | 0.51 | $7.65 |
| 04-30 08:39 | Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 04-30 08:39 | Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 27-May 3? | BUY | 0.997652145 | $15.00 |
| 04-30 08:39 | Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $96.87 |
| 04-30 08:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? | BUY | 0.9849999256 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 08:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? | BUY | 0.9849999261 | $12.00 |