likemoeny
0xdfda352fb9e67e242d90cf4e2b5b6f6122319750
- Realised P&L
- $-41.31
- Volume
- $24.1k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $278.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $40? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.981 | $196.10 | −$1.90 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.962 | $82.69 | +$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.75at 0.967Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$20.40at 0.976Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?
- +$8.23at 0.984Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
- +$7.95at 0.962Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
- +$7.68at 0.940GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 07:55 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $82.56 |
| 10-11 03:25 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $40? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 09-19 00:20 | Will XRP dip to $0.70 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.999 | $210.79 |
| 09-13 02:43 | Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $81.51 |
| 09-13 02:41 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.97 |
| 09-13 02:40 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 14 – Sep 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $64.94 |
| 09-13 02:40 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 14 – Sep 18? | BUY | 0.9989581078 | $15.50 |
| 09-07 07:00 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $51.95 |
| 09-07 06:59 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-06 08:35 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $165.83 |
| 09-05 09:58 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $163.47 |
| 09-05 07:29 | Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $163.23 |
| 09-02 07:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $79.92 |
| 09-02 07:22 | Will XRP dip to $0.70 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $163.61 |
| 09-02 07:15 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $98.60 |