manuuuuuc
0xdfd77fc244e6a9d0431844e46c54ae3ed46c57d7
- Realised P&L
- $-145.85
- Volume
- $25.5k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $19.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.212US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$582.52at 0.054Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $710 Week of April 13 2026?
- +$549.52at 0.215UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$-19.00at 0.068Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
- +$-316.92at 0.264Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 00:19 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | BUY | 0.0298507106 | $50.00 |
| 09-13 21:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.0221363005 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 15:42 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.50 |
| 09-07 15:42 | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | BUY | 0.29 | $174.00 |
| 09-04 17:10 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $12.43 |
| 09-02 22:07 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $9.00 |
| 09-02 21:58 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 08-31 20:27 | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | BUY | 0.23 | $52.50 |
| 07-19 21:48 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.095 | $104.50 |
| 07-10 19:32 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.32 | $1.0k |
| 07-02 20:02 | Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.045 | $40.50 |
| 06-30 19:59 | Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.14 | $112.00 |
| 06-30 11:17 | Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.09 | $108.00 |
| 06-27 22:45 | Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? | BUY | 0.08 | $80.00 |
| 06-21 08:52 | Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.14 | $112.00 |