ToTheWindow
0xdf903ee52261f475ee5a02f9189acdb7cdba41f0
- Realised P&L
- $33.1k
- Volume
- $1.66M
- Markets traded
- 385
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded385
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.0kat 0.010Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$3.3kat 0.003Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
- +$2.1kat 0.154Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$1.8kat 0.693Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.408Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:25 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.0170621645 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 00:58 | Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $400.00 |
| 09-23 00:28 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.6352054691 | $100.00 |
| 09-23 00:28 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.019 | $4.00 |
| 09-22 21:17 | Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $21.70 |
| 09-22 20:59 | Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6667626538 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 20:58 | Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 09-22 20:57 | Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4839958858 | $18.82 |
| 09-22 20:12 | Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0753277618 | $14.42 |
| 09-22 19:44 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $3.85 |
| 09-22 19:42 | Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.8M Iranian rials on September 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $5.85 |
| 09-22 19:35 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $15.30 |
| 09-22 19:34 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0059251969 | $2.18 |
| 09-22 19:34 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0042029592 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 19:30 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0083333333 | $5.00 |