Mikelious
0xdf901733630ac14af76494073d91b31c4fae5637
- Realised P&L
- $-177.40
- Volume
- $160.1k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $396.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$607.17at 0.317Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$344.28at 0.190Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$272.97at 0.520Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?
- +$181.11at 0.210Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
- +$154.20at 0.550Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:43 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.50 |
| 09-10 18:37 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3421426729 | $498.00 |
| 09-09 18:11 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.302269088 | $502.00 |
| 09-07 23:11 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0379999999 | $15.00 |
| 09-07 10:31 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1145493742 | $50.00 |
| 09-06 07:21 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.33 | $34.76 |
| 09-03 19:46 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0258380797 | $15.00 |
| 08-26 09:06 | Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $12.75 |
| 08-26 08:07 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.1688794187 | $189.42 |
| 08-26 08:06 | Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.540635381 | $165.69 |
| 08-21 10:24 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 08-17 12:45 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3549727936 | $558.18 |
| 08-17 10:50 | Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0271848 | $13.59 |
| 08-17 10:50 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $544.59 |
| 08-12 17:02 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.1830834798 | $3.96 |