0xdf8264d83fb239125c22eccd0abe477a10368822
0xdf8264d83fb239125c22eccd0abe477a10368822
- Realised P&L
- $-2.41
- Volume
- $315.35
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $6.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.630 | $3.60 | +$2.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.250 | $1.36 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.165 | $0.76 | −$0.44 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.360 | $0.68 | −$0.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.56at 0.258WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on September 15?
- +$3.50at 0.369S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$2.77at 0.308Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:32 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.20 |
| 09-20 00:07 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.20 |
| 09-19 10:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999783 | $1.20 |
| 09-19 02:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.359999928 | $1.20 |
| 09-18 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.779999987 | $1.20 |
| 09-18 08:35 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999533 | $1.20 |
| 09-17 21:54 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.20 |
| 09-17 13:16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998733 | $1.20 |
| 09-17 05:14 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 17? | BUY | 0.7599998733 | $1.20 |
| 09-16 21:13 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.20 |
| 09-16 13:13 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.20 |
| 09-16 05:13 | Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.6099998373 | $1.20 |
| 09-15 20:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.20 |
| 09-15 20:41 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6799999547 | $1.20 |
| 09-15 12:21 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on September 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.20 |