Pablito112
0xdf755a086a8355ccffd630d00e9692cfa4bc29c6
- Realised P&L
- $-5.0k
- Volume
- $193.7k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $760.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.095 | $551.03 | −$168.99 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $165.00 | −$735.00 |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.044 | $44.50 | −$165.50 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$710.00 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$960.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$450.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.662Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
- +$827.55at 0.370Israel strike on Iran on June 24?
- +$801.87at 0.604US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$752.73at 0.560US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
- +$595.48at 0.677Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 00:19 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $120.05 |
| 06-23 07:39 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $900.00 |
| 06-15 08:52 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.58 |
| 05-04 15:31 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 01-22 22:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9149241138 | $120.57 |
| 01-22 22:59 | Will Solana dip to $110 in January? | BUY | 0.8894152936 | $75.00 |
| 12-27 23:15 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.93 | $152.52 |
| 12-27 23:15 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.87 | $183.57 |
| 10-22 19:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? | BUY | 0.9469999574 | $20.86 |
| 10-08 20:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12? | BUY | 0.9399999807 | $29.19 |
| 10-08 20:59 | Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October? | BUY | 0.8 | $35.00 |
| 10-01 07:31 | Will Solana dip to $190 September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.8099999994 | $51.99 |
| 08-21 22:19 | Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? | BUY | 0.4399999962 | $23.13 |
| 07-25 21:11 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | SELL | 0.951 | $552.56 |
| 07-16 01:30 | Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.09 |