BigBetsBonanza
0xdf51f4dba5ee71f0bbc979d1ae8d4e67eeb91210
- Realised P&L
- $-904.35
- Volume
- $52.2k
- Markets traded
- 193
- Open portfolio
- $558.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded193
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.165 | $415.51 | +$246.93 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.695 | $122.52 | +$7.52 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.895 | $17.90 | +$2.30 |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.002 | $2.05 | −$19.51 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$8.53 |
| Will Sydney FC win on 2026-07-29? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes | 0.575 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.19at 0.257Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?
- +$78.14at 0.255Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$59.94at 0.549Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$57.17at 0.677Assad leaves Syria before 2025?
- +$44.34at 0.260Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 02:52 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.023 | $27.15 |
| 09-11 02:51 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $6.00 |
| 09-11 02:51 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.026 | $23.64 |
| 09-11 02:51 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.143 | $5.81 |
| 08-11 11:35 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.15 |
| 07-29 11:33 | Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.99 | $7.00 |
| 07-29 11:23 | Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 11:17 | Will Sydney FC win on 2026-07-29? | BUY | 0.0975124477 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 11:11 | Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 11:02 | Will Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 02:34 | Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 07-09 10:57 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0230498746 | $27.21 |
| 07-08 12:20 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1319999899 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 23:18 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.45 | $16.60 |
| 07-06 22:05 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.45 | $16.59 |