NeroDevvv
0xdf4950512b99eb8e3f572c5286b791bb02b151cf
- Realised P&L
- $-46.59
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $2.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.966 | $2.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Greenland 2: Migration make 25 million or more domestically by January 31? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.32at 0.660Ethereum above $3600 on August 13?
- +$1.27at 0.770Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?
- +$1.21at 0.540Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-15?
- +$0.79at 0.560Orioles vs. Red Sox
- +$0.60at 0.6801 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 08:03 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.979813413 | $295.12 |
| 06-22 08:03 | Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $199.79 |
| 06-22 08:03 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.9826444896 | $198.21 |
| 06-19 12:52 | Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $200.00 |
| 06-19 12:52 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $300.00 |
| 06-19 12:51 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.9956229521 | $200.00 |
| 06-19 12:51 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.95231235 | $190.46 |
| 06-19 12:50 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.9958131355 | $200.00 |
| 05-01 11:01 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.996 | $329.67 |
| 05-01 11:01 | Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $309.69 |
| 04-30 09:11 | Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $310.00 |
| 04-30 09:10 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.997 | $330.00 |
| 04-30 09:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9989999977 | $300.00 |
| 04-30 09:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | SELL | 0.998 | $299.40 |
| 04-30 09:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9989999977 | $300.00 |