austin63
0xdf3af8e8eb607bd17304d55e3e4a0b63e7bd0d78
- Realised P&L
- $-49.07
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $48.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on September 21? · No | 0.889 | 0.874 | $24.87 | −$0.43 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 21? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.730 | $23.60 | +$2.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.81at 0.982Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
- +$0.32at 0.976Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
- +$0.25at 0.995Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
- +$0.23at 0.995Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before August?
- +$0.13at 0.996Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:08 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.83 |
| 01-30 17:58 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9962289746 | $35.30 |
| 01-30 13:01 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.99799998 | $24.33 |
| 01-30 12:20 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.996 | $25.05 |
| 12-30 16:22 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.05 |
| 12-30 14:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.17 |
| 12-30 11:24 | Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999976 | $26.91 |
| 12-30 00:38 | Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $48.42 |
| 12-29 22:14 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 10-30 19:55 | Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.67 |
| 10-30 18:36 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $34.85 |
| 09-29 15:41 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9959999865 | $12.44 |
| 09-29 04:56 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999955 | $15.44 |
| 09-29 02:29 | Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in September? | BUY | 0.9979999958 | $19.94 |
| 09-28 23:26 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9759999994 | $13.19 |