zkwall
0xdf2e31f96d992098a7ee31f7bf988bf3a513623f
- Realised P&L
- $9.77
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $604.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.947 | 0.992 | $595.65 | +$26.73 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.935 | $3.89 | +$0.15 |
| Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.620 | $3.41 | −$1.48 |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.972 | $1.13 | +$0.03 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.66 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.40at 0.994Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?
- +$1.81at 0.997Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$1.58at 0.770Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
- +$1.09at 0.653Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$0.99at 0.904Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 14:51 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9499996977 | $1.10 |
| 08-02 08:18 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.8999998556 | $3.74 |
| 07-25 14:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.92 |
| 07-12 10:24 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3849999616 | $2.66 |
| 07-10 19:33 | UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.9069999939 | $2.23 |
| 06-25 08:23 | Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999836 | $4.89 |
| 06-18 10:18 | o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.75 |
| 06-06 20:42 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.8699999854 | $1.79 |
| 05-23 10:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? | BUY | 0.8299999603 | $11.71 |
| 05-11 07:36 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.36 |
| 05-05 07:52 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.7699999201 | $5.30 |
| 05-02 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be 76°F or higher on May 3? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.00 |
| 04-30 07:34 | Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? | BUY | 0.984999999 | $4.70 |
| 04-28 07:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999126 | $1.22 |
| 04-13 08:08 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.9899998321 | $1.71 |