A83
0xdf27ebc4a92d5db0f564fee893f5ce514ffd8489
- Realised P&L
- $-26.72
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $17.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.053 | $17.58 | −$15.59 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? · Down | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.30 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? · Up | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET · Down | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET · Up | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.97 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET · Up | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 19 above $305? · No | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.00at 0.160Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$5.40at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
- +$5.20at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$4.80at 0.190Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11?
- +$4.50at 0.360Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-03 11:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | SELL | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 03-03 09:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | SELL | 0.34 | $2.02 |
| 01-20 20:03 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 19 above $305? | BUY | 0.0598802395 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 23:14 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $25.50 |
| 01-19 21:06 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? | BUY | 0.2399999918 | $20.00 |
| 01-19 17:15 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 01-17 11:15 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.975 | $9.02 |
| 01-13 20:01 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.9019999299 | $6.00 |
| 01-13 19:53 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 01-11 21:36 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $21.60 |
| 01-11 21:35 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 01-11 21:28 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 01-08 21:44 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 01-02 18:17 | Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |