MagnusFlensted
0xdf15e7bd9b948a9ba1ac5a3e257bd04dce1cc50f
- Realised P&L
- $-9.51
- Volume
- $156.73
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $64.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.345 | $14.08 | −$5.92 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $13.89 | +$3.89 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.511 | 0.431 | $12.65 | −$2.35 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.651 | 0.598 | $9.19 | −$0.81 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.474 | 0.403 | $8.49 | −$1.51 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No | 0.752 | 0.945 | $6.28 | +$1.28 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.63at 0.556Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August?
- +$0.23at 0.897Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
- +$0.01at 0.991Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
- +$-0.13at 0.876Sion: Luca Wiedenmann vs Thiago Cigarran
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 21:16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.830423685 | $15.00 |
| 10-24 21:15 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5109999902 | $15.00 |
| 10-15 23:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 23:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.650999962 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 22:58 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4739999868 | $10.00 |
| 08-25 13:27 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 08-25 13:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.7524752311 | $5.00 |
| 08-20 07:42 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? | BUY | 0.5459999749 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 16:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 15:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8899999555 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 17:20 | Sion: Luca Wiedenmann vs Thiago Cigarran | SELL | 0.83 | $1.90 |
| 08-17 17:16 | Sion: Luca Wiedenmann vs Thiago Cigarran | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $2.00 |