0xdef6f1590f7fb46f0f99f2a0cee73efcfef16b0d
0xdef6f1590f7fb46f0f99f2a0cee73efcfef16b0d
- Realised P&L
- $2.79
- Volume
- $197.96
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $12.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 24? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.984 | $3.98 | −$0.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? · Up | 0.830 | 0.905 | $2.19 | +$0.18 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 18? · No | 0.998 | 0.952 | $1.91 | −$0.09 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10PM ET · Up | 0.770 | 1.000 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on October 18? · No | 0.960 | 0.935 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 18? · No | 0.985 | 0.952 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22? · No | 0.460 | 0.440 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 18? · No | 0.660 | 0.440 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9PM ET · Down | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.79at 0.427Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
- +$0.88at 0.159Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
- +$0.84at 0.858Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
- +$0.51at 0.666Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
- +$0.34at 0.147Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 04:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 18? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:27 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on October 18? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 24? | BUY | 0.987999996 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:05 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:05 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 04:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 02:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10PM ET | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 02:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8799997184 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 02:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |