0xdea73e01cc90a0ad11141e740a1618483a8990b2
0xdea73e01cc90a0ad11141e740a1618483a8990b2
- Realised P&L
- $-8.09
- Volume
- $321.51
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $1.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? · No | 0.790 | 0.805 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.340 | 0.310 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.379Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 05:43 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 05:43 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 17:36 | Will Meta (META) close above $750 on October 14? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:14 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2679999485 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:13 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:13 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 00:23 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.31 |
| 09-08 04:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4799999616 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 08:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 13:00 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 22:34 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 14:33 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 16:34 | Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |