Kerwinfg
0xde88e0ec3b227e65ac0f5b73581dd1d0a39aa241
- Realised P&L
- $-139.85
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $48.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: O/U 4.5 · Over | 0.500 | 1.000 | $29.00 | +$14.50 |
| Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.380 | $19.00 | +$8.00 |
| Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.02 |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.84 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.46 |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs · Nigma Galaxy | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.26 |
| Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.84 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-26? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$322.46at 0.500Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- +$304.78at 0.500Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$99.40at 0.500Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?
- +$26.02at 0.500Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$22.14at 0.500Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 07:08 | Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? | BUY | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 09-09 12:04 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $14.50 |
| 08-25 11:41 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-26? | BUY | 0.76 | $28.88 |
| 08-21 06:34 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.34 | $13.26 |
| 08-12 07:44 | UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.23 | $14.49 |
| 07-17 07:10 | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $639.36 |
| 07-17 07:10 | Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on July 21? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.00 |
| 07-17 07:10 | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $255.00 |
| 07-17 07:10 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $154.84 |
| 07-17 07:09 | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $385.00 |
| 07-17 07:09 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $464.53 |
| 07-17 07:09 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $24.57 |
| 07-17 07:09 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $620.00 |
| 07-17 07:08 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $598.80 |
| 07-17 07:08 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $624.00 |