0xde691504c44bc0e65240ba646b4fc4eb96ab686d
0xde691504c44bc0e65240ba646b4fc4eb96ab686d
- Realised P&L
- $-29.68
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $113.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.968 | $85.14 | +$41.14 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.380 | $13.30 | +$5.60 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.974 | 0.968 | $7.74 | −$0.05 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.964 | 0.981 | $4.90 | +$0.08 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.155 | $1.40 | −$0.49 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.087 | $0.70 | −$0.90 |
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.83at 0.800Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- +$1.72at 0.826Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.82at 0.787Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.19at 0.048Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$0.14at 0.120Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 06:54 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.44 |
| 07-05 23:47 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.727 | $3.63 |
| 07-05 16:07 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.89 |
| 07-05 13:42 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.08 |
| 07-05 13:39 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.978 | $4.89 |
| 07-05 13:32 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.974 | $7.79 |
| 07-05 13:02 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $9.64 |
| 07-05 12:18 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.68 |
| 07-05 12:17 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.734 | $3.67 |
| 07-04 15:14 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.046 | $1.06 |
| 07-04 12:41 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 06-22 01:10 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 05-18 16:14 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $6.24 |
| 05-18 16:11 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.62 |
| 05-18 16:08 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.60 |