0xde61af3d6ee1f745221d5f374538a41852c4b139
- Realised P&L
- $-10.92
- Volume
- $141.57
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $3.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.600 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.940 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.115 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.520 | 0.125 | $0.48 | −$1.52 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.051 | $0.31 | −$1.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$3.09at 0.620Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$1.40at 0.770Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- +$0.91at 0.691Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 23:52 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 15:52 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:56 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 14:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 03:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 03:18 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 01:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 17:49 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 09:37 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 00:38 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:10 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2699998217 | $1.09 |
| 09-07 07:39 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 06:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 17:42 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 17:15 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |