krill810
0xde5a8b92f34439ac875ed1e9081a46f5e8a22251
- Realised P&L
- $-20.8k
- Volume
- $644.7k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $372.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.135 | $155.25 | −$74.75 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.009 | $152.00 | −$310.33 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $65.00 | −$25.00 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$134.87 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.468 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$540.80at 0.584Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?
- +$298.47at 0.895US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
- +$140.11at 0.223Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- +$137.35at 0.564Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
- +$103.55at 0.967US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 19:17 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | SELL | 0.13 | $57.17 |
| 10-11 14:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0321000005 | $64.20 |
| 10-11 10:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $80.00 |
| 10-10 13:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $120.00 |
| 10-10 10:41 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $120.00 |
| 10-09 16:50 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.023 | $11.95 |
| 10-09 16:50 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.023 | $5.65 |
| 10-09 13:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $12.58 |
| 10-09 13:25 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $71.74 |
| 10-09 13:24 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.026 | $2.94 |
| 10-08 12:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $550.00 |
| 10-07 22:11 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.026 | $11.26 |
| 10-07 17:43 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $12.50 |
| 10-07 17:42 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.027 | $38.93 |
| 10-06 22:46 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $17.25 |