olegan
0xde50884ab8fb10ef795a55261e2e62431154d25f
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $123.0k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $965.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.705 | 0.780 | $949.85 | +$90.89 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.310 | $15.50 | −$15.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.430Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$210.37at 0.892Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$190.30at 0.723Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?
- +$167.07at 0.340Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14?
- +$116.00at 0.395Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 15:11 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.0201321636 | $6.61 |
| 10-26 15:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.66 |
| 10-06 06:52 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 07-03 08:35 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.025 | $250.00 |
| 07-03 08:35 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.062 | $310.00 |
| 07-01 15:25 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.031 | $96.31 |
| 06-30 19:27 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.901 | $901.00 |
| 05-11 10:16 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5738923352 | $244.24 |
| 05-11 10:15 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.71 | $2.1k |
| 04-26 12:34 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | SELL | 0.55 | $81.61 |
| 04-26 12:02 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | BUY | 0.64 | $93.93 |
| 04-25 19:32 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | BUY | 0.3399999951 | $33.61 |
| 04-06 10:17 | Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.879 | $21.98 |
| 03-03 17:09 | Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.56 |
| 03-03 17:08 | Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9553426667 | $71.65 |