0xde4F373EF28c14386A2Aa5496B68984632B7d013-1768147918295
0xde4f373ef28c14386a2aa5496b68984632b7d013
- Realised P&L
- $-519.07
- Volume
- $9.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $169.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.180 | $95.59 | −$44.40 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.059 | $44.73 | −$30.26 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.411 | 0.075 | $23.73 | −$106.27 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.041 | $5.17 | −$17.82 |
| Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.002 | $0.05 | −$9.95 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.171 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$315.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.71at 0.500Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$65.26at 0.380Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
- +$62.56at 0.390Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$0.17at 0.920Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
- +$-3.00at 0.580Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-10 14:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5799999265 | $2.91 |
| 03-10 14:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $1.99 |
| 03-10 14:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3390016581 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 14:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2299999968 | $50.00 |
| 03-04 18:36 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.040999981 | $2.00 |
| 03-02 22:03 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2641439204 | $20.00 |
| 03-02 22:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.48 | $30.00 |
| 03-02 22:01 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1650608447 | $30.00 |
| 03-02 22:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1061301821 | $81.64 |
| 03-02 20:36 | Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 20:36 | Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 20:36 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999856 | $7.00 |
| 03-02 20:35 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.00 |
| 03-02 20:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.4699999982 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 20:32 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999962 | $40.00 |