0xde2fb96d359c1f72f3fa3fd17d55134595fa1548
0xde2fb96d359c1f72f3fa3fd17d55134595fa1548
- Realised P&L
- $-23.77
- Volume
- $743.50
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $0.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 22? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $0.07 | −$0.63 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 22? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$0.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 22? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$0.65 |
| Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.15 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? · Up | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.417Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?
- +$2.15at 0.501Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?
- +$2.14at 0.359Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET
- +$1.05at 0.113Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15?
- +$1.04at 0.718Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 20:40 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.0151912657 | $0.38 |
| 10-20 20:38 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.0184768762 | $0.67 |
| 10-20 20:37 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.0052672139 | $0.69 |
| 06-21 17:01 | Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.15 |
| 06-16 14:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 14:16 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.87 |
| 06-16 11:24 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 03:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 03:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 00:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET | BUY | 0.329999832 | $1.10 |
| 06-15 20:34 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? | SELL | 0.974 | $1.25 |
| 06-15 18:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3499998091 | $1.10 |
| 06-15 18:53 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.25 |
| 06-15 18:52 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.26 |
| 06-15 18:52 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.71 |