fakerfan
0xde283aa6410534f9739bf6b0b37cb4c7c74aa563
- Realised P&L
- $-17.1k
- Volume
- $156.7k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $386.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.660 | 0.063 | $242.70 | −$2.3k |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.315 | $103.89 | +$1.65 |
| Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.050 | $40.11 | −$392.92 |
| o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · No | 0.655 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.7k |
| USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$81.66 |
| USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? · No | 0.125 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$337.66 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? · No | 0.346 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$393.03 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? · No | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? · No | 0.474 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.359Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$2.8kat 0.313Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.129Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.294GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.536Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 14:39 | Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8533206778 | $364.10 |
| 10-20 14:39 | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0250029256 | $42.73 |
| 10-20 14:38 | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.035531548 | $16.96 |
| 10-20 14:37 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3911892412 | $590.05 |
| 10-20 14:36 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.84 | $460.36 |
| 10-20 14:35 | Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8105252561 | $1.5k |
| 04-15 12:57 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.31 | $102.24 |
| 04-15 12:48 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 04-14 14:01 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1299852217 | $263.87 |
| 04-14 14:00 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1283318694 | $315.58 |
| 04-14 03:43 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.033727921 | $1.59 |
| 04-14 03:42 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0309759509 | $60.36 |
| 04-13 16:23 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.44 |
| 04-13 15:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | SELL | 0.32 | $108.82 |
| 04-13 01:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | BUY | 0.4 | $9.33 |