Commission
0xddd286adc1caface68c3a92c509af4d4bebcadda
- Realised P&L
- $-62.05
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $27.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $27.99 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.33at 0.895TikTok sale announced by October 31?
- +$1.46at 0.961Will Biden pardon SBF?
- +$1.46at 0.940Will Biden drop out on July 22?
- +$0.86at 0.975Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.970Biden drops out by July 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 07:17 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.97 |
| 08-27 08:46 | Will Trump meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel in August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.97 |
| 07-17 09:29 | Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.87 |
| 06-26 02:36 | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.96 |
| 06-17 07:35 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $38.84 |
| 05-12 09:30 | Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $70.93 |
| 04-20 01:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? | BUY | 0.999 | $77.72 |
| 03-16 09:44 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $33.44 |
| 02-23 10:20 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? | BUY | 0.998 | $62.47 |
| 02-10 06:48 | Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | BUY | 0.986 | $28.57 |
| 01-20 08:39 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | BUY | 0.992 | $27.78 |
| 01-20 08:32 | Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $31.94 |
| 12-10 07:12 | Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $23.00 |
| 12-06 13:49 | Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999715 | $28.49 |
| 11-21 09:28 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21? | BUY | 0.996 | $48.30 |