PapaTrench
0xddba38bd99cefc2b9f862a673ed187e25fdde638
- Realised P&L
- $-7.8k
- Volume
- $63.4k
- Markets traded
- 2,126
- Open portfolio
- $3.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,126
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.09at 0.070Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 31?
- +$22.16at 0.040Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 31?
- +$18.49at 0.091Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?
- +$18.47at 0.310Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?
- +$14.93at 0.060Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C or higher on August 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 08-03 10:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.929999998 | $4.70 |
| 08-03 10:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.48 |
| 08-03 10:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.40 |
| 08-03 10:21 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9201063713 | $7.44 |
| 08-03 10:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.52 |
| 08-03 10:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.68 |
| 08-03 10:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |