PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

PapaTrench

0xddba38bd99cefc2b9f862a673ed187e25fdde638

Realised P&L
$-7.4k
Volume
$233.8k
Markets traded
11,675
Open portfolio
$48.43

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded11,675
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 19? · No0.9800.985$5.42+$0.03
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 19? · No0.9900.985$5.42$0.03
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on September 19? · No0.9900.985$5.42$0.03
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 19? · No0.9600.950$5.22$0.06
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 19? · No0.8600.845$4.65$0.08
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 19? · No0.7100.735$4.04+$0.14
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 19? · No0.4800.470$2.58$0.06
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.040$2.08$2.65
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.040$2.08$2.65
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 18? · Yes0.0910.080$1.15$0.16
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.015$0.78$3.94
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.015$0.75$3.80
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.090$0.54$0.01
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.010$0.52$4.20
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on September 19? · Yes0.0910.010$0.52$4.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 19?BUY0.96$5.28
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 19?BUY0.86$4.73
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on September 19?BUY0.99$5.45
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 19?BUY0.98$5.39
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 19?BUY0.71$3.90
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 19?BUY0.48$2.64
09-17 23:36Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 19?BUY0.99$5.45
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 19?BUY0.998$5.99
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on September 19?BUY0.999$5.99
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 19?BUY0.98$5.88
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 19?BUY0.38$2.28
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 19?BUY0.998$5.99
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 19?BUY0.77$4.62
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 19?BUY0.999$5.99
09-17 23:25Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 19?BUY0.998$5.99