Miguelprado
0xdd4bb791094fba6287360855d5aa744e74c93568
- Realised P&L
- $-884.62
- Volume
- $46.3k
- Markets traded
- 639
- Open portfolio
- $159.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded639
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.14at 0.370US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
- +$63.31at 0.465US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$54.44at 0.557US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$51.51at 0.785Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score
- +$42.38at 0.656Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 12:59 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.3299999815 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 12:59 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.48 | $15.00 |
| 10-05 11:59 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.844 | $15.49 |
| 10-04 21:46 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.91 | $36.38 |
| 10-04 21:42 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.85 | $6.85 |
| 10-04 21:42 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.8546622691 | $19.44 |
| 10-04 21:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.9 | $24.32 |
| 10-04 21:04 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.807 | $48.31 |
| 10-04 02:25 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 23:31 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.650999962 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 13:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5589999955 | $50.00 |
| 10-02 10:40 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5849999789 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 10:44 | Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 10:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.628999968 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 22:22 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |