lisbongg
0xdd44c2b946a4cb9b1a63583bf5799ada4be82c0e
- Realised P&L
- $-486.23
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $123.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.035 | $69.00 | −$111.00 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.027 | $54.00 | −$146.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.50at 0.620Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$-10.00at 0.114Tria FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$-25.00at 0.190Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
- +$-35.24at 0.060Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$-195.49at 0.075Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 09:22 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.003 | $8.17 |
| 04-08 05:06 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0719601023 | $30.00 |
| 04-07 12:38 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.082 | $3.46 |
| 04-07 12:37 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.081 | $6.49 |
| 04-07 09:20 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0809999926 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 09:12 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0809999926 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 09:10 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0807577197 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 09:09 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.0830154919 | $50.00 |
| 04-07 08:56 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.058 | $1.20 |
| 03-19 00:29 | Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.001 | $0.60 |
| 02-04 09:49 | Tria FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1136963335 | $10.00 |
| 10-22 03:53 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.80 |
| 10-22 03:51 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $59.09 |