garcianina
0xdd4131ac87935b396a0c2d0abc27a1bdc2a19758
- Realised P&L
- $-12.70
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $19.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.875 | $9.60 | +$1.59 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in October? · No | 0.680 | 0.855 | $9.22 | +$1.89 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.029 | $0.56 | −$13.56 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.87 |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs · 100 Thieves | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.83 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.33at 0.810Will Solana reach $130 September 21-27?
- +$4.07at 0.800Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on September 26?
- +$3.85at 0.830Nigeria Quadrangular T20 Series: Nigeria A vs Ghana
- +$0.23at 0.986Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
- +$0.21at 0.987Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:46 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.71 |
| 01-31 13:31 | Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.01 |
| 01-30 12:53 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.55 |
| 01-30 12:25 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999863 | $49.73 |
| 01-30 11:54 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.96 |
| 12-30 08:45 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.86 |
| 12-30 08:14 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989998791 | $6.24 |
| 12-30 08:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.94 |
| 12-30 01:10 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999631 | $20.52 |
| 12-29 23:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999929 | $24.80 |
| 12-29 18:49 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.994999972 | $32.56 |
| 10-30 19:53 | Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.05 |
| 10-30 18:11 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.38 |
| 09-29 18:09 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.30 |
| 09-29 13:30 | TikTok removed from App Store by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.82 |