ALU
0xdd07b0c34c423709e8a6b97e04b7aa3c7bd0e955
- Realised P&L
- $-162.86
- Volume
- $13.7k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $479.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.823 | 0.815 | $479.48 | −$4.77 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.585 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.64at 0.670Will Trump visit China by June 30?
- +$60.93at 0.832Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$48.55at 0.800Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$31.60at 0.903Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$27.88at 0.878Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 03:27 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8231084951 | $484.25 |
| 09-01 03:10 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.874056397 | $490.52 |
| 07-29 03:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.754 | $508.68 |
| 07-23 13:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.714999982 | $7.95 |
| 07-23 12:58 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.87 | $490.09 |
| 07-11 14:32 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.88 | $495.72 |
| 06-28 13:59 | Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.88 | $556.09 |
| 05-31 02:52 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.887 | $199.55 |
| 05-31 02:52 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.899 | $200.44 |
| 05-28 05:41 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.5799999979 | $100.00 |
| 05-28 05:40 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.169 | $92.86 |
| 05-28 05:35 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8969999965 | $200.00 |
| 05-28 05:35 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8889999996 | $200.00 |
| 05-27 05:00 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $100.00 |
| 05-20 02:04 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1819999987 | $100.00 |