podiums
0xdd0748a57f39f0ccbb87ce5223255b01902b0058
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $323.5k
- Markets traded
- 323
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded323
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $761.00 | +$152.20 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.710 | 0.406 | $332.92 | −$249.99 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $2.90 | +$0.02 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.940 | $0.94 | +$0.31 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.041 | $0.92 | −$7.49 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.090 | $0.27 | −$0.54 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$0.97 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$447.56at 0.200Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
- +$384.04at 0.530Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$378.33at 0.102Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?
- +$365.31at 0.190Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
- +$344.16at 0.160Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:50 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 04-13 16:09 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL | 0.45 | $405.90 |
| 04-13 15:43 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.57 | $282.15 |
| 04-13 13:56 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.58 | $287.10 |
| 04-13 13:17 | Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April? | BUY | 0.81 | $520.83 |
| 04-13 13:05 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.47 | $423.94 |
| 04-13 10:17 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $30.34 |
| 04-12 15:24 | Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | SELL | 0.1 | $47.20 |
| 04-11 18:51 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $204.16 |
| 04-11 18:19 | Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.51 | $9.69 |
| 04-11 18:16 | Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.757 | $65.10 |
| 04-11 18:15 | Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.757 | $361.09 |
| 04-11 18:04 | Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $495.90 |
| 04-11 14:58 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $206.48 |
| 04-10 19:43 | Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.7 | $591.50 |