0xdcd5a15d3a68fbba9e9b8df043d0cb51b3c8b650
0xdcd5a15d3a68fbba9e9b8df043d0cb51b3c8b650
- Realised P&L
- $4.75
- Volume
- $246.35
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $3.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.950 | $1.94 | +$0.94 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.320 | 0.300 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.030 | $0.07 | −$0.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.01at 0.278Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$2.87at 0.349Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.25 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.41at 0.389Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of October 5 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:57 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 19:56 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 11:08 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:35 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 18:27 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:06 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 01:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 16:40 | Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 investment banking revenue be above $2.3B? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:18 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:15 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:46 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:50 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $181 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:58 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:28 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $532.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |