alfonse3
0xdcd450646dc6470b505c3e84c3f5040f381ca0c1
- Realised P&L
- $-10.25
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $182.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.43at 0.170Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?
- +$0.21at 0.170Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 0%-3%?
- +$0.20at 0.460Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election?
- +$0.20at 0.180Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 35%-40%?
- +$0.01at 0.784Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 25%-30%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 15:23 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.76 |
| 10-28 13:41 | Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.832 | $41.60 |
| 10-26 02:03 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat? | SELL | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 10-26 00:52 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? | SELL | 0.81 | $29.17 |
| 10-26 00:51 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat? | SELL | 0.83 | $11.61 |
| 10-25 20:57 | Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 10-23 17:18 | Will the Democrats win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $11.58 |
| 10-23 16:46 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 6%-9%? | SELL | 0.884 | $4.46 |
| 10-22 15:49 | Will Margareta Dovgal win the next Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? | SELL | 0.5 | $4.34 |
| 10-22 10:22 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.71 | $18.36 |
| 10-22 10:22 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $17.38 |
| 10-21 09:14 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election? | SELL | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 10-21 08:01 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 10-21 06:19 | Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.42 |
| 10-21 03:37 | Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.37 | $16.69 |