MP1261
0xdc4bcfa627afa3aa26037cf135364eef1f51b8af
- Realised P&L
- $-29.47
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $58.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.890 | 0.875 | $19.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.930 | 0.910 | $19.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.860 | 0.870 | $10.61 | +$0.12 |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.585 | $9.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16? · No | 0.929 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Corners · Over | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.84at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?
- +$1.99at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 20?
- +$1.80at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?
- +$1.71at 0.700France vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners
- +$1.28at 0.260Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 13:18 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.49 | $0.12 |
| 08-01 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.4 | $0.10 |
| 08-01 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.59 | $2.76 |
| 08-01 13:05 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.55 |
| 08-01 09:18 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.3299999296 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 09:17 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 09:17 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.50 |
| 08-01 04:25 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 04:16 | Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 04:15 | Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.08 |
| 07-31 11:41 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 17:51 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.26 |
| 07-24 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 24? | SELL | 0.1250025013 | $2.50 |
| 07-24 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.9559999904 | $2.00 |