MP1261
0xdc4bcfa627afa3aa26037cf135364eef1f51b8af
- Realised P&L
- $-5.22
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 195
- Open portfolio
- $438.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded195
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.83at 0.825Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- +$2.72at 0.847Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?
- +$1.80at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?
- +$1.72at 0.052Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 20?
- +$1.65at 0.710France vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:10 | Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 18:52 | Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 15:51 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | SELL | 0.42 | $25.20 |
| 09-14 07:44 | Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.948 | $119.09 |
| 09-12 16:45 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $22.80 |
| 09-12 16:44 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $20.65 |
| 09-12 04:37 | Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $17.00 |
| 09-09 16:29 | Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.953 | $4.76 |
| 09-09 16:28 | Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.948 | $37.92 |
| 09-09 11:49 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.95 | $20.90 |
| 09-09 11:49 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.948 | $6.65 |
| 09-09 11:25 | Will the National Rally group hold 13 or more French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.8099999854 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 08:57 | Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.958 | $19.16 |
| 09-09 08:55 | Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.953 | $27.64 |
| 09-08 13:58 | Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.91 | $36.40 |