PolyBot

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Traders

MP1261

0xdc4bcfa627afa3aa26037cf135364eef1f51b8af

Realised P&L
$-5.22
Volume
$3.1k
Markets traded
195
Open portfolio
$438.64

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded195
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No0.9480.987$123.92+$4.84
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9560.955$56.32$0.06
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.8360.835$49.89$0.06
Will the National Rally group hold 13 or more French Senate seats after the 2026 election? · No0.8250.825$43.17$0.01
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9490.950$42.75+$0.07
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No0.9100.915$36.60+$0.20
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9500.943$27.36$0.19
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8900.935$21.01+$1.01
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9300.945$20.32+$0.32
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8600.865$17.30+$0.10
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19? · Yes0.9780.000$0.00$10.00
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 20? · Yes0.0510.000$0.00$2.00
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 16? · No0.9290.000$0.00$5.00
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17? · Yes0.9390.000$0.00$5.00
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Corners · Over0.7000.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 19:10Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-17?BUY0.92$5.00
09-17 18:52Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-17?BUY0.8099999352$2.00
09-17 15:51Will France pass a national budget by December 31?SELL0.42$25.20
09-14 07:44Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?BUY0.948$119.09
09-12 16:45Will France pass a national budget by December 31?BUY0.38$22.80
09-12 16:44Will France pass a national budget by December 31?SELL0.63$20.65
09-12 04:37Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026?BUY0.85$17.00
09-09 16:29Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.953$4.76
09-09 16:28Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.948$37.92
09-09 11:49Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.95$20.90
09-09 11:49Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.948$6.65
09-09 11:25Will the National Rally group hold 13 or more French Senate seats after the 2026 election?BUY0.8099999854$10.00
09-09 08:57Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.958$19.16
09-09 08:55Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.953$27.64
09-08 13:58Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?BUY0.91$36.40