MelissaRodgers5707
0xdc3ce06dd8758be8866722e8ad96abe21c2bd42e
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $184.1k
- Markets traded
- 187
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded187
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$997.50at 0.191Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
- +$509.44at 0.171Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
- +$488.92at 0.320Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?
- +$271.95at 0.330Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?
- +$270.61at 0.630Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 04:09 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.6 | $361.80 |
| 04-21 04:08 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.6 | $9.00 |
| 04-21 04:07 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.59 | $33.63 |
| 04-13 17:56 | Will Trump say "Melania" this week? (April 19) | BUY | 0.59 | $561.68 |
| 04-13 17:23 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.3 | $202.50 |
| 04-13 16:34 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $624.66 |
| 04-13 16:33 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $637.71 |
| 04-13 16:10 | Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $525.69 |
| 04-13 14:15 | Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $532.18 |
| 04-13 13:06 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.3k |
| 04-13 09:47 | Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | SELL | 0.61 | $4.88 |
| 04-13 09:46 | Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 04-13 05:15 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.77 |
| 04-12 22:55 | Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? | BUY | 0.138 | $68.86 |
| 04-12 21:11 | Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.76 | $744.80 |