suprisetill
0xdc2ba586b53fd364595b04fb34a1d48d26538ad9
- Realised P&L
- $-165.25
- Volume
- $551.74
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $169.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-30.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? · No | 0.937 | 1.000 | $110.99 | +$6.99 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.860 | 1.000 | $58.11 | +$8.11 |
| Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be less than 25%? · Yes | 0.851 | 0.001 | $0.06 | −$49.94 |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.76at 0.740Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 09:48 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be less than 25%? | BUY | 0.8509274062 | $50.00 |
| 11-01 09:47 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $50.00 |
| 08-14 22:10 | Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more? | BUY | 0.8699999994 | $63.00 |
| 08-14 21:56 | Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 21:52 | Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 21:52 | Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 20:55 | Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? | BUY | 0.9369999995 | $104.00 |
| 08-11 20:54 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 20:54 | Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | BUY | 0.7399998964 | $5.00 |
| 08-10 08:09 | Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |