0xdc1d02f650b3a5b9d59e9205e3e03b2b373fca83
- Realised P&L
- $46.79
- Volume
- $372.70
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $52.72
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.885 | $15.00 | +$5.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.925 | $12.17 | +$2.17 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.715 | $9.93 | −$0.07 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10? · Up | 0.527 | 0.520 | $9.86 | −$0.14 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.895 | $5.44 | +$0.70 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.105 | $0.32 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.71at 0.280Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$17.03at 0.370Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$11.74at 0.460Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$4.74at 0.210Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$4.71at 0.680Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 06:48 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10? | BUY | 0.5273631634 | $10.00 |
| 08-07 22:47 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.7199999539 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 10:12 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 02:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 01:18 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 17:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 08:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 00:08 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998349 | $1.06 |
| 08-01 16:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.769999518 | $1.23 |
| 08-01 14:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.36 |
| 08-01 04:11 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 20:10 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.55 |
| 07-31 12:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-30 17:34 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |