John.law
0xdc0616297f0daff42a39c77157f38bd17fdf2c0a
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.870 | 0.915 | $525.86 | +$25.86 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.775 | $387.50 | −$47.50 |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.595 | $297.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$237.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$546.79at 0.646Will no leader be out in 2025?
- +$198.56at 0.718SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
- +$189.00at 0.730Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$172.11at 0.635Will Eric Adams drop out?
- +$167.30at 0.760US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 12:30 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $300.00 |
| 10-05 19:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $179.82 |
| 10-05 19:09 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 08-10 08:18 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.87 | $435.00 |
| 08-10 08:17 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $186.00 |
| 08-10 08:16 | Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.79 | $31.60 |
| 08-10 08:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $151.20 |
| 08-09 09:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 09:11 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.8699999991 | $500.00 |
| 07-07 15:34 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.86 | $172.00 |
| 06-02 16:23 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 16:08 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY | 0.9 | $500.00 |
| 06-02 16:07 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | BUY | 0.7098595147 | $500.00 |
| 06-02 09:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $25.00 |
| 05-28 12:52 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9295631051 | $100.00 |