ElonSleep
0xdbf99963ba3e62c65a6870d0887d6f776e03b9cc
- Realised P&L
- $6.9k
- Volume
- $658.1k
- Markets traded
- 333
- Open portfolio
- $6.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded333
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.595Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?
- +$687.88at 0.016Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$685.94at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$550.03at 0.120Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$508.46at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 23:31 | Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | SELL | 0.8541371913 | $68.48 |
| 09-18 09:57 | Will SPD win at least 16% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.89 | $73.87 |
| 09-18 09:57 | Will SPD win between 13% and 16% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.129 | $10.71 |
| 09-18 09:51 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.53 | $79.50 |
| 09-18 09:51 | Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.33 | $49.30 |
| 09-18 09:51 | Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $40.50 |
| 09-17 23:06 | Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $63.60 |
| 09-17 22:12 | Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%? | BUY | 0.1266666667 | $3.80 |
| 09-17 20:37 | Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.9673886648 | $47.96 |
| 09-17 20:35 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | SELL | 0.57 | $26.22 |
| 09-17 20:35 | Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.53 | $26.53 |
| 09-17 20:01 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.56 | $168.00 |
| 09-17 15:04 | Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $23.45 |
| 09-17 10:41 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.061 | $19.52 |
| 09-17 10:34 | Will Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%? | SELL | 0.31 | $12.40 |