ElonSleep
0xdbf99963ba3e62c65a6870d0887d6f776e03b9cc
- Realised P&L
- $7.0k
- Volume
- $461.1k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.591Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?
- +$982.26at 0.034Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
- +$694.15at 0.016Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$630.31at 0.015Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?
- +$550.03at 0.120Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:30 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.219301091 | $142.11 |
| 08-03 17:42 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.17768376 | $177.68 |
| 08-03 17:39 | Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week? | SELL | 0.55 | $18.75 |
| 08-03 15:54 | Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 08-03 15:54 | Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week? | BUY | 0.14 | $22.84 |
| 07-31 23:32 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? | BUY | 0.974 | $19.48 |
| 07-31 20:35 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? | BUY | 0.406 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 15:04 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.0020330125 | $3.82 |
| 07-29 14:49 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.41 |
| 07-29 14:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $55.50 |
| 07-28 04:00 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1488032787 | $27.23 |
| 07-28 03:02 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1515727799 | $53.68 |
| 07-28 02:01 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 07-27 18:22 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $11.89 |
| 07-27 18:02 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.1008581405 | $34.08 |